El Niño is currently underway across the tropical Pacific, including the Solomon Islands. Ocean and atmospheric indicators in the tropical Pacific are well above the El Niño threshold.
These El Niño conditions are very likely to persist through the remaining months of 2026 and into February 2027. The majority of global climate models indicate this El Niño event could peak at levels among the highest observed since 1950. This points towards a strong to very strong El Niño event.
Drier-than-normal rainfall conditions are expected, potentially leading to water shortages in parts of the country, particularly in densely populated communities that depend on a single water source or rainwater harvesting systems.