Current Observation


Thursday, November 2, 2017 
Weak to moderate La Nina and Tropical cyclone Outlook for Solomon 
The  El  Nino  Southern  Oscillation  (ENSO)  conditions  in  the  tropical  Pacific  Ocean  is  currently 
neutral however; the tropical Pacific surface water cooled significantly in the past two weeks hence, 
central  to  eastern  tropical  Pacific  is  now  generally  cooler  than  average   condition.  Atmospheric 
indicators of ENSO including the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), the trade winds and cloudiness 
in the central Pacific are approaching La Nina levels. This is consistent with most of the climate 
model forecast which are predicting a weak to moderate La Nina conditions likely to form in late 
Because  of  the  current  climate  condition,  rainfall  for  Solomon  Islands  is  expected  to  be  above 
normal for the period November 2017 to January 2018. In addition to this, the current neutral to 
moderate  La  Niña  condition  may  also  increase  the  odds  of  above-average  number  of  tropical 
cyclones  for  the  South  Western  Pacific  region  including  Solomon  Islands  during  this  cyclone 
season. Historically, data shows that tropical cyclones were less frequent during La Nina years than 
in El Nino years and most cyclones formed in the Southern parts of the Solomon Islands during the 
la Nina phase. 
Although, communities might experience some  fine conditions over some parts of the country  at 
times, people should not be complacent but start planning for the tropical cyclone season. 
PLEASE NOTE: This outlook is based on atmosphere  and ocean conditions that favour   tropical 
cyclone formation only and not tropical cyclone impacts. 
All  stakeholders  and  island  communities  in  the  Solomon  Islands  should  prepare  for  the  coming 
Tropical Cyclone season – November 2017 to April 2018 and listen out on SIBC, FM Stations and 
other media organisations for any updates. 

Ministry of Environment, Climate Change, Disaster Management and Meteorology 
P.O BOX 21 
PHONE: 00 677 27658 or 933 Climate Section: (677) 24218  FAX: 00 677 23029 
Web site:
Contact details 
For  more  information  on  this  topic,  please  contact  the  Director,  David  Hiriasia  at  the  Solomon 
Islands Meteorological Services on: 
Phone: 20332 
Email: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Last modified on Friday, 03 November 2017 14:37

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