Thursday, November 2, 2017
Weak to moderate La Nina and Tropical cyclone Outlook for Solomon
The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean is currently
neutral however; the tropical Pacific surface water cooled significantly in the past two weeks hence,
central to eastern tropical Pacific is now generally cooler than average condition. Atmospheric
indicators of ENSO including the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), the trade winds and cloudiness
in the central Pacific are approaching La Nina levels. This is consistent with most of the climate
model forecast which are predicting a weak to moderate La Nina conditions likely to form in late
Because of the current climate condition, rainfall for Solomon Islands is expected to be above
normal for the period November 2017 to January 2018. In addition to this, the current neutral to
moderate La Niña condition may also increase the odds of above-average number of tropical
cyclones for the South Western Pacific region including Solomon Islands during this cyclone
season. Historically, data shows that tropical cyclones were less frequent during La Nina years than
in El Nino years and most cyclones formed in the Southern parts of the Solomon Islands during the
la Nina phase.
Although, communities might experience some fine conditions over some parts of the country at
times, people should not be complacent but start planning for the tropical cyclone season.
PLEASE NOTE: This outlook is based on atmosphere and ocean conditions that favour tropical
cyclone formation only and not tropical cyclone impacts.
All stakeholders and island communities in the Solomon Islands should prepare for the coming
Tropical Cyclone season – November 2017 to April 2018 and listen out on SIBC, FM Stations and
other media organisations for any updates.
SOLOMON ISLANDS GOVERNMENT
Ministry of Environment, Climate Change, Disaster Management and Meteorology
SOLOMON ISLANDS METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE
P.O BOX 21
PHONE: 00 677 27658 or 933 Climate Section: (677) 24218 FAX: 00 677 23029
Web site: http://www.met.gov.sb
For more information on this topic, please contact the Director, David Hiriasia at the Solomon
Islands Meteorological Services on: