Three months Rainfall Outlook


This Seasonal outlook is based upon one month average value of October 2015 of the Central Eastern and South Western Pacific Ocean sea-surface temperature anomalies. The outlook is presented as the ‘probability’ or chance of the coming rainfall being in one of the three Tercile Classes – Below normal, Normal and Above normal. The lead time is one month.


  • Below normal rainfall is likely for parts of Solomon Islands for the period — January to March 2016.
  • Rainfall deficiet is current for all region stations except for Henderson in the central region.





Drier than normal condition is most likely for central and eastern regions for the period - January to March 2016. Central region - Auki, Henderson and Honiara and Eastern region - Kirakira and Lata are all favored for below normal rainfall while western region is likely to be noraml. Both statistical model (SCOPIC) and dynamical model (POAMA) climate outlook are strongly consistent with the current El Nino condition in the tropical Pacific.

According to the Solomon Islands Drought Index - 30 days tool, Choisuel, Lata and parts of northen Guadalcanal provinces are currently on medium drought level while Malaita is low and Western, RenBel Islands and parts of Guadalcanal are all on high drought level.

Please see attached Climate Outlook Bulletin for more details.

The Local Seasonal rainfall forecast provided in this document is presented for the Public, Agriculture and Forestry industries, Health sector and Water Management Resources, etc. The information should be used as a guide only. Whilst Solomon Islands Meteorological Service takes all measures in providing accurate information, it does not guarantee 100% accuracy of the fore- cast provided in this summary. The Department should be consulted for expert advice, clarification and further information when necessary. The users take all risk resulting indirectly or directly from the use of rainfall prediction information.


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